by Calculated risk 6/10/2025 02:44:00 PM
Note: I’ve received many requests to post this again. Therefore, here is another update of pursuit employment during presidential terms. We often use the presidential term as a time marker – you can use the chair of the house, the Fed chair, or other markers.
Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the 1980s, but participation rates have risen in the 1980s (young population and women who join the workforce), and participation rates are generally declining. However, these graphs provide an overview of employment changes.
The first graph shows changes in private sector payroll employment from the time each president took office until the end of his term. President Carter, George HW Bush and President Biden only had one term.
GW Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the residential bubble. Obama (Dark Blue) took office during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. There was also a major recession in the early 1980s shortly after Reagan (Dark Red) took office.
A recession was coming towards the end of his Ghw Bush (Light Purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (Light Blue) served for eight years without a recession. In 2020 there was a pandemic-related recession.
First, there is a table for private sector work for each semester. (Blue for Democrats, Red for Republicans)
| semester | Private Sector Added Jobs (000’s) |
|---|---|
| Biden | 14,327 |
| Clinton 1 | 10,875 |
| Clinton 2 | 10,104 |
| Obama 2 | 9,924 |
| Reagan 2 | 9,351 |
| Carter | 9,039 |
| Reagan 1 | 5,363 |
| Obama 1 | 1,889 |
| GHW Bush | 1,507 |
| Trump 2 | 5071 |
| Golden Week Bush 2 | 453 |
| Golden Week Bush 1 | -822 |
| Playing cards 1 | -2,178 |
| 1Up to 4 months | |
Click on the graph for larger images.
The first graph is private employment only.
Private sector employment has lost 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President GHW Bush (Light Purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (Light Blue), and 369,000 under President GW Bush, and 11,813,000. During President Trump’s terms (Orange), the economy lost 1,671,000 private sector jobs.
The big difference between the presidents was public sector employment. Note: Public sector employment conflicts from the 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 decade census.
The public sector grew on Mr. Carter’s term (an increase of 1,304,000), Mr. Reagan’s term (1,414,000), Mr. GHW Bush’s term (1,127,000), Mr. Clinton’s term (1,934,000), and Mr. GW Bush’s term (1,7444,000 jobs). However, while Obama took office, the public sector fell significantly (263,000 jobs). During Trump’s conditions, the economy lost 536,000 public sector jobs (mainly teachers during the pandemic).
Table for public sector work. Public sector employment growth was the biggest increase in Biden’s term (mostly state and local employment) ahead of Reagan’s second term. Public sector employment declined most during Obama’s first term.
| semester | Public Sector Added Jobs (000’s) |
|---|---|
| Biden | 1,813 |
| Reagan 2 | 1,438 |
| Carter | 1,304 |
| Clinton 2 | 1,242 |
| GHW Bush | 1,127 |
| Golden Week Bush 1 | 900 |
| Golden Week Bush 2 | 844 |
| Clinton 1 | 692 |
| Obama 2 | 447 |
| Trump 2 | 11 |
| Reagan 1 | -twenty four |
| Playing cards 1 | -537 |
| Obama 1 | -710 |
| 1Up to 4 months | |
