Election Day is finally here! Please vote. I write my name every year to “Steam and Water Conservation District Supervisor” (seriously. If the current supervisor’s wife doesn’t vote, I might think it’s a leaked election) anyway…
Election Day is a great opportunity to place a bet! Last year we did pretty well overall with the pick.
Since last year, Wall Street has been turning its eye to forecast markets.ahem… I mean hedge risk of political events. Today you can get Polymarket/Predictit odds at the Bloomberg Terminal.
Betting on the outcome of a contract is easier than ever as more respectable brokerages compete to gather those committees by providing access through their own platforms.
Currently there are three popular items Forecast Market To place bets and see the current implicit odds of events that occur.
Polymate It is not officially operated in the US. US users are blocked from the site with geo-fencing due to regulatory uncertainty. The Iowa Electronics Market (IEM) also exists as a real money forecasting/futures market run by the University of Iowa. However, it is considered a nonprofit and has certain restrictions.
Usually, all forecast markets work the same way.
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Find the scenario you want to bet on – For example, the 2024 US election
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Purchase contracts with the amounts shown between 0.01 and 1.00. This is like a delta value for stock options. It represents current Paris Muteel The amount wagered that the outcome will occur, or that there will be a theoretical “probability” of events to occur according to the trader.
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If the outcome is known, the contract expires and the value moves to 0 or 1.00. Payments and settlements occur for each contract rule.
Interestingly, due to relatively low liquidity and high volatility, there may be slight fluctuations in price depending on how you ask questions are presented. Those smart enough could arbitrate the market accordingly or seek a slight edge.
Important Note – Polymet allows you to live-update % chances with built-in widgets, so you don’t know exactly what the value is shown when reading this, especially when the votes get closer and the votes start to count.
Overall 2024 election winners –
Most markets had Donald Trump as a small favourite. 55 wins 45. You may bet on roulette red/black.
Balance of power in the US government
This could be a great opportunity for a big victory. Will the Democrats wipe out? Are there any Republicans? Will it split? Multiple possible outcome agreements leave opportunities for better risk reward early on. Don’t forget that 15 bets today will be a 5.666-1 payment
Popular Voting Winners
Fun scenarios to frustrate for people who hate election colleges, popularity vote winners + election winners can step in at the right time. When California and New York rise in numbers, let’s go with Kamala Harris for a victory here.
The state’s movements in 2020
It makes God a little difficult, but the bets on someone keeping their ears on the ground with local emotions rewards. Will Texas finally turn blue? Will North Carolina continue to be red? Are there any deep blue surprises with moderate results than expected?
Swing, North Carolina
Switch to Karshi for some downvoting elections and you can see knife fights within swing states this election season. According to these contracts, the wider margin of victory is then mainstream votes, and be aware of clear bias and optimism. Crypto Bros, Day Traders and billionaires donors are also looking at the numbers, but it doesn’t take much capital to run the numbers in the direction they choose to hunt down these markets. Passed.
Will the government be closed this year?
Finally, don’t forget to enact legislation and referendums. Like Super Bowl prop bets about coin tossing and national anthem period, these are fun, out-of-box places to bet on where they came from, where they came from, where they came from, failures, confusion, crazy ideas. (Sorry, you’re just “hedging exposure”)
Good luck with your bettors. It will be a wild night of voting counts and spinning results.
Are you interested in joining the Trader Papa Podcast in 2025? Shoot the email! I want you to sit for discussion
thought? question? comment?
Reach out! Maybe I’ll post the full topic or as a Q&A
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