However, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) forecasts a net loss of Rs 112 for the January quarter, but expects that loss to be narrower both year-on-year and sequential.
PAYTM’s Q4FY25 revenue is likely to drop from 3% to 13%, converting it to a top line between 1,975 crores and 2,199 rupees.
Of the securities companies, JM Financial has the most conservative revenue estimates, but yes, securities are the most optimistic.
The following are the recommendations from the securities company:
JM Financial
One 97 newsletter is expected to record net income of Rs 4.5 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. This compares to a loss of Rs 551 crore in the same period last year and a loss of 208 crore at Q3FY25.
PAYTM’s Q4FY25 revenue is estimated at Rs 1,975, reflecting a 13% year-on-year decline, while QOQ growth is 8%.
The EBITDA may remain negative at Rs 65, but that shows a 71% improvement in both Yoy and QOQ. The EBITDA margin is projected to improve 660 bps and QOQ 889 bps from the previous year, but remains negative at 3.3%.
JM estimates the company’s contribution profits fell 14% at 1,108 crore, but a 15.6% QOQ increase, indicating an improved cost-efficiency and operational momentum.
“On a consolidated basis, revenue (including Rs 100 crore UPI incentive) is expected to increase QOQ by around 8%. The contribution margin is expected to grow by QOQ of 370 bps, particularly due to an increased share of financial services.
Better sales leverage is expected as intermediaries push Paytm into coordinated EBITDA positive territory as employee costs have been reduced.
Yes Securities
Yes Securities also expects Paytm to report a positive PAT on Q4FY25. Revenue was 2,199 Rs, marking a 3% decline from the previous year, but with a 20% successive growth.
The EBITDA is forecast at Rs 15.2.
The brokerage has revealed that UPI’s incentive Yoi revenue will decline.
On the cost side, payment processing fees (PPCs) as a percentage of payment revenue are expected to decrease by 51%, primarily due to incentives.
“We will reach a 5% QOQ (excluding PPC and ESOP expenses), with a 10% increase in EBITDA margin (excluding other revenues and previous costs) and an increase in 1200 bps QOQ compared to a 2% decrease in Q3FY25,” the preview note said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL)
Motilal Oswal expects Paytm to post a net loss of Rs 112 crores, but the loss could be narrowed on both Yoy and QOQ basis.
Revenue was 2,098 crore, down 7.5% year-on-year and is projected at 15% QOQ.
Securities companies expect to see improved operational profitability resulting from reduced depreciation expenses. We also see continuous growth in payments and GMV.
The memo added that revenue growth will be supported by UPI incentives and that EBITDA guidance will become a significant and oversightable future.
(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, opinions and opinions given by experts are unique. These do not represent views of the economic era.)
