President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday morning, “NATO has broken, ‘You’ll have to pay,’ and arrived at the NATO Military Alliance’s annual summit meeting in The Hague.
NATO members I agree On Sunday, a significant increase from the 2% commitment that has been standing since 2014 as it raised defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Playing cards. Previously requested Allies will double their spending target to 4% of GDP in 2018. Experts say luck The effort to collectively pledge billions of dollars in additional dollars on defense spending over the next decade could be met by some countries, but may not be feasible in others.
According to NATO, the 3.5% of GDP pledges directed towards the “core” defense of GDP is placed in the “core” defense, with 1.5% of GDP being “included in infrastructure and resilience.” Website. To put percentages in view, NATO estimate The UK spent 2.33% of GDP, or USD 82.1 billion, in 2024.
Experts say Sunday’s agreement may be more of a political play than a promise, as European countries aim to soothe Trump and strengthen their alliance amid geopolitical turmoil.
“5% would just be crazy for Europeans,” said Liana Fix, the European Council of Diplomatic Peoples. luck. According to FIX, 3.5% of GDP is a realistic estimate for the needs of many member states.
“Most European countries don’t spend 5% (of GDP) on the Cold War,” Fix said. “It’s obviously not only is it difficult to communicate with European constituencies, but it could also lead to a controversial debate with Donald Trump if 1.5% realise that it wasn’t the real defensive spending he demanded from Europeans.”
FIX hopes that the leader will detail what falls within the additional 1.5% of GDP and define “3.5% to 1.5% division” during the NATO summit where she is present.
Experts say the contract is likely not supported by all member states.
“The (contract) is not one size that fits all kinds of things,” said Jantekau, European director of Eurasia Group. luck. “Because in theory, it’s the whole idea. It’s an equal commitment by everyone. But in reality, it was never the case.”
The revision said 5% targets were fully designed to organize Trump. Screenshot of a verified private message from NATO Executive Director Mark Latte on Tuesday to True Social. “You will achieve what the US president cannot achieve for decades,” said Latte’s message, confirmed by the NATO news agency. “Europe is planning to pay on a massive scale the way it should be, and that will be your victory.”
“Frankly (the NATO agreement) is a classic compromise clearly created by Secretary Mark Latte.” luck. “He is clearly a former longtime European head of state who understands how to play this game very well.”
The revision said NATO leaders hope Trump will remain in a good mood during his visit.
“The idea for this summit is to give Donald Trump a victory lap and say, ‘You took us to this point, we’re doing it.’ And just to avoid controversial issues on the agenda,” Fix said.
On his way to the summit, Trump questioned the core principles of the NATO alliance and refused to commit to Article 5. This is a collective defense agreement between member states. Trump when reporters asked if he was committed to the clause. I responded: “It depends on your definition. There are many definitions in Article 5. You know that, right?”
Article 5 stipulates that if an NATO allies are attacked, all other member states will “deem this violence as an armed attack on all members and take action to support the state, according to NATO. Website.
The United Front, which welcomes Trump to the Hague, may prioritize maintaining the NATO alliance, but 23 out of 32 member states I’ve reached it 2% of GDP expenditure thresholds – and some experts will reach 5% by 2035.
The US defense funding was 2.7% in 2024, approaching a record low. US Department of Defense. NATO’s data Record 2024 US spending on defense is under 3.5%.
“The ripple effects of the US economy will probably be negative,” Kirkegaard said of the NATO agreement.
It is set to meet new targets
German Cabinet Approved Details of the 2025 budget draft and 2026 budget framework are expected to reach 3.5% of GDP in core defense spending by 2029, six years ago, NATO’s 5% target.
“We hope that (Germany) Europe will become a poster child for how to improve its capabilities,” said Techau of Eurasian Group. luck.
The CFR amendment said the country is in a “really good position” to make its plan come true as it has less debt and can increase its defence spending through loans and underwrite more debt.
Poland’s defence spending is expected to rise to 4.2% in 2024 and to 4.7% in 2025. NATO.
Techau said countries near Russia, such as Poland, the Baltic countries and some of the Scandinavian countries, are committed to reaching targets for targeted spending. Kirkard says this trend is not surprising ” given the sharp military threat Russia poses to Europe.”
Countries that are unlikely to reach the target
Spain pushed back the deal. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says Madrid doesn’t need to meet its 5% target, as it will only spend 2.1% of GDP to meet NATO core requirements. It has been reported on sunday.
“They have problems in Spain,” Trump said. I said on tuesday. “It’s always a matter of Spain. Spain doesn’t agree. This is very unfair to others.”
British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer I said The country must “actively prepare” for war and pledge to its spending targets. To reach this goal, the country will be “financially challenged,” Kirkegaard said.
“The fiscal challenges are probably the most severe in Spain, in the UK, France and in Italy,” Kierkegaard said.
Still, European countries are trying to find solutions to possibilities US troops withdrawal From the area.
Kirkegaard said he would “absolutely subscribe” to the European Intelligence Agency’s estimate that if the Ukrainian-Russia war ends tomorrow, Russia will begin preparing for a broader war with “one or more NATO members.”
“It’s a very unpleasant situation for Europe, whether in Ukraine or the US, which is unable to protect itself against Russia today,” he said.
