- President Trump has broken several pause buttons on his tariffs Before the Big Banks face off against analysts on Friday’s revenue guidance. The president’s announcement on social media had an immediate impact on the market, with Nasdaq rising 12% in the day and the S&P 500 rising more than 9%. Individual stocks rose: Delta line lifted 23%, Nvidia rose over 18%, and Apple closed 15% after concerns over the iPhone retail price, over $770 billion in value evaporated.
The stock market erupted with a fierce surge in optimism following the post on the truth that President Donald Trump suspends some of his tariffs, and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent reassured the world that the US would not be caught up in a trade war.
But despite a brief rest from this week’s massacre, calm uncertainty looms over the next 90 days.
“All portfolio managers are trying to figure out whether they can draw a straight line in future negotiations,” said Jake Schlemeyer, Harbor Capital’s portfolio manager and a former member of the Reserve Bank of New York’s market group. “It’s 90 days before I have to play this song and dance.”
Level Set: President Trump announced a flock of tariffs at the Rose Garden address last week, which has been telegraphed since his campaign. Investors had acquired prices for tariffs and subsequent impacts on trade policies, but the tariffs were greater than expected. The market plunged a few days after Trump’s announcement. The word “recession” – typically I avoided it According to JPMorgan Chase, at the expense of anything, the point of discussion and the US could stumble headlong on one rose. Trump said Dimon’s comments took into account his decision to issue a partial moratorium on Wednesday.
Following Trump’s announcement, the market held rallies against gravity, with the Nasdaq rising 12% in the day and the S&P 500 rising more than 9%.
Michael Orlando, executive director of JPMorgan Energy Management Center at the University of Colorado Denver. luck The suspension of tariffs was primarily a relief from uncertainty and continued to weigh stock prices. But the greater development that emerged over the weekend has begun to look like a dangerous bet, as the US Treasury “stop looking like a safe port in an age of uncertainty,” Orlando said.
“I think this tariff has done a lot to dispel concerns that the president may not understand the idea of profits from trade,” Orlando added.
But the question remains: what happens next?
“A sufficient air cover”
First, it is considered with whether the damages caused by customs will continue and the costs of widespread economic uncertainty, Schulmeier said. All plans regarding capital expenditures and major strategic moves were thrown out the window because of no certainty, he said.
The portfolio manager noted that there are important indications to be aware of between major companies and analysts during revenue calls, particularly for CEOs and CFOS to plan to tackle tariff questions and what could cause confusion.
“This provides enough air covering to drop any bad news,” Schurmeier said. “The bad news you have is get this quarter.”
Money managers are also watching bank leaders such as Dimon to talk about how their clients are responding, their perspectives on M&A activities, and guidance on their willingness to provide credit, Schurmeier added. At this point, it’s too early to talk about potential loan losses, but other topics show whether there is stronger business sentiment.
“Whatever they say is pretty beneficial,” Schulmeier said.
China: 104% to 125%
Other major looming issues are China.
The next few weeks could be zero on the impact of further retaliation after China pledged to “end it to fight” even before Trump raised the country’s tariffs to 125%. Trump refuted China’s tariffs without suspending, instead hiking them because of China’s “lack of respect,” the president wrote on social media.
Idanna Appio, the first Eagle investment portfolio manager and former deputy director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s global economic analysis division, said the situation with China is very serious, ranging from tariff levels to the possibility of a broken trade relationship between the two largest economies of the world.
It is unclear whether Trump’s latest move will push China towards negotiating tariffs or whether economic tensions will reach a level where it becomes more confrontational in the geopolitical realm, Appio said.
“Is it a drain on the geopolitical aspect given the sharp escalation and economic friction between the US and China, clearly not good for the global economy?” she said. “If they feel they have nothing to lose… will China start pushing into other domains? The answer to that is “no.” ”
Economic outlook: “Very thin”
Beyond what may happen in China, the US economy remains “a very tenuous place,” Apio said.
She puts a recession in her forecast, but I don’t know if Appio is removing it at this stage due to looming uncertainty, even if the tariffs aren’t as big as those announced last week. Furthermore, there is still room for further tariff measures, and at this stage there is little truly uncertainty being eliminated.
“One fear I have is that I will be repeating this whole exercise in 90 days,” Appio said. “I was on a roller coaster, to say the least.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.
