Ice attacks are concentrated in blue states, including California, New York. These states account for around 22% of national GDP at nominal prices (approximately 14%, NY 8%, slightly larger if you’re using actual GDP):
Figure 1: US GDP Growth (Black Line), Contributions from California (Green Bar), NY (Tan Bar), Rest-of-US (Blue Bar), PPTS Saar.
There is no Q1 GDP for CA or NY. In any case, Q1 National GDP is distorted by the frontline of import duties. We have a growth deviation of Q1. Baumeister, Leon-Leiva, Sims Weekly state-level economic status index:
Figure 2: Weekly Economic Status Level Condition Index: % deviation from US (blue), California (TAN), New York (green), national trends. sauce Weci.
Therefore, in Q1, California’s GDP growth is predicted to be closer to national trend growth (the trend in California is more than the trend in the US), and NY is already under.
UCLA Andersen Prediction NFP employment growth in 2025 is about zero. CA Ministry of Finance The official forecast is annual employment growth of 0.6% (0.2%) and annual NFP growth of 0.2% (0.4%) for 2025Q1 (2025Q2).
These continued ice attacks, mass removal and deportation likely have the administration’s purpose to sow up chaos and fear. This involves policy uncertainty. California EPUs will be extended until December:
Figure 3: California’s weekly state-level economic status index, percent deviation from national trends (blue), California EPU (right scale). sauce: Weci and policyuncenterty.com.
If national economic conditions are affected by uncertainty in the same way as states, rising uncertainty in California’s policy will have a depressing effect on economic activity.
