With industrial production, there is the following photo from a series focused on the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Figure 1: Benchmark revision of non-agricultural pay pay bands from CES (Bold Blue), smooth population control (orange), private employment using industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers of CH.2017 $ (BOLD Light Green), manufacturing and trade sales of CH.2017 $ (black), consumption of CH.2017 $, GDP (PICK), BRICH.2017 $) All logs were normalized to 2021M11 = 0. 2025Q1 GDP is the second release. Source: BLS via Fred, Federal Ferrment, Bea Insights into the S&P Global Market (NEE MacroeConomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/2/2025 release), and author calculations.
Some alternative indicators are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Preliminary Non-Agricultural Payroll Early Benchmark (NFP) (Bold Blue), Civilian Employment Adjusted to the NFP Concept, Smooth Population Control (Orange), Manufacturing Production (Red), Real Retail Sales (Black), CH.2017 $ (PINK), GDO (Blue Bars), All logarithmic accidental index normalized to 2021M11 = 0. sauce: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2]Fred, Bea 2025q1 via the second release, and author calculations.
Manufacturing production remained flat, with all actual retail sales down in May.
