The story of massive trade tariffs in 2025 continues…
Monday, a Joint Statement It has been announced that the US and China have agreed to a 90-day suspension of tariffs introduced last month. In the tentative case, they are “Move forward with a spirit of mutual initiation, continuous communication, cooperation and mutual respect.”
No one knows what exactly this means. But it sounded good. And it gave investors “warm and fuzzy.” That’s exactly what they needed.
Practically, US tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will be reduced from 125% to 10%.
Wall Street celebrated the news with a coordinated purchase. On Monday, the S&P 500 closed the day with a profit of 3.26%, while the Nasdaq finished with a profit of 4.35%.
How fun. The dip on the day of liberation was defeated. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are back where they started this year.
But some people are never happy. Senator Chuck Schumer, looking for cheap political points, posted the following analysis To X:
“Sadly, China looks like he’s made Trump better again. Another example of Trump’s chaos. He has one of the following policies one day:
Obviously, Schumer is not paying attention. If he had, he would understand that this is all part of the art of Trump’s trading strategy…
It gets bigger. It causes chaos. intense. It cuts down much fewer contracts than originally proposed. I declare victory. rinse. repeat.
This is playing card bread and butter. He learned it at a young age by seeing the pioneering work of his father, Frederick Christ Trump Sr. It’s Development 101…
Let’s play the charade
We are talking about the old dances of exaggerated, exaggerated questions and strategic retreats that take place before the Planning Commissions across the United States. The bold housing developer has to go big when proposing new plots, so when the planning committee cuts it and appeases its constituents, he’s always wanted.
For example, the true desire of a developer might be a 100-unit compartment. He believes this is a sweet spot for profit and manageable construction. But if that’s what he leads, he knows the planning committee will bring it back to 75 units.
Instead, the developers propose a vast 150 units. As expected, the public is surprised. They point to the destruction of certain traffic apocalypses, overflowing schools and scenic landscapes. The retirees pose in anger over the loss of habitat for ground squirrels, seeking the meaning and purpose of life.
The Planning Committee must saliva classify future property tax revenues and pretend to represent the interests of its members. So they look for epic compromises.
After playing this charade earlier, the developers challenge a conspiracy of mutual cooperation. He has expressed his “respect for the process” and acknowledges that “this is how the Democratic government should work.” He then returns the proposal to a modest 100 units and sets aside a few acres for ground squirrel habitat.
The ego-backed planning committee to tame perceived city sprawls, approves the development of 100 units. The commissioner will mediocre themselves for an expanded tax base and new money that allows you to go to the community center after-school program for underprivileged youth. The retirees give each other a high five for the important victory they achieve by saving the poor ground squirrels.
And so, through the art of exaggerated inquiries and strategic retreats, the developer gets the 100-unit parcel he’s always wanted.
Play bad hands
Now Trump has received his actions in a high stakes poker game with China from the Planning Commission’s Chamber of Commerce. His opening bid? The tariff proposal is so great that the Great Wall looks like a garden fence.
Naturally, China retaliated with similarly large US tariffs. Soon the stock market collapsed like old fortune cookies. Was this all part of Trump’s grand scheme?
Like the parcel developer, his initial demands were clear cases of strategic overreach. Remember, to attract the art of contracts, the opening offer must be about the bluester and theatre. The purpose is to cause confusion and confusion.
After that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent, the ultimate expert, comes to manage the negotiations. But, alas, things didn’t go according to Trump’s plans.
You know, Bescent has been dealing with bad hands with decades of indifference in the American industry. Byron King, Daily calculations,explanation:
“The fact is that China has lesser secret trade weapons. It gives China’s XI asymmetrical ability to retaliate Trump’s tariffs. In fact, Beijing’s plans are already unfolding through a widespread Chinese embargo with key materials that don’t move west.
Team Trump should have been expecting China to play this simple counter for our tariffs on cheaply made goods filling Walmart shelves. By reducing the shipment of critical materials and minerals produced primarily in China, it could significantly weaken the US economy and its military.
From strategic retreats to full retreats
Modern economies, and the military, rely on the materials and minerals that are important to make technology work. Circuit boards, chips, software, sensors, complex components, etc.
At the basic level, the technology needs to work on is a specific metal, or rare earth element (REE). These metals are part of the periodic table of elements. However, they differ from the metals you normally think of, such as iron, copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum.
These metals are elements used in handheld smartphones and the latest cars and appliances. You probably haven’t heard of them. Elements such as Praseodymium, Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, Samarium, Gadolinium, etc. These REEs are also important for modern technological weapon systems.
In 2019, at the height of Trump’s last trade war stance, China threatened to cut off the US from access to leases. Starving these important ingredients in the United States will cause the economy and military to kneel over time.
Apparently, Trump has a short memory. It was very rash to launch another trade war with China without first having an alternative supply chain for REE. China has the advantage until America revamps its supply chain and starts producing more of these materials at home.
Therefore, the strategic retreat quickly turned into a complete retreat. And the conference in Geneva became nothing more than a gradual, choreographed charade.
There were no concessions or compromises. A fierce 90-day suspension on the day of liberation. And a joint statement filled with meaningless words.
“Sometimes, you don’t get a real cool move.” I made a comment Paul Newman’s role as Lucas Jackson is the movie’s cool hand luke after winning a poker game by bluffing with nothing but a hand.
Of course, this strategy will be unlocked quickly when the other person calls your bluff. China is effectively called Trump’s bluff.
It’s not that China doesn’t have its own problems. Reducing the population. Overcovered real estate market. Angry, unemployed young man. An economy that is highly dependent on exports.
But it also has a Communist government, rather than cutting off its nose to stare at its own face, rather than admitting to Trump. This makes it almost impossible to obtain a trade contract.
Finally, the next 90 days will be fast and furious for international trade. Budget accordingly.
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From the heart,
Mn Gordon
For economic prism
From strategic retreats to full retreats and economic prisms
