Justin, a Chinese doctoral student at Ivy League University, has always planned to settle in the US, but the 25-year-old has abandoned the idea after immigration and academia crackdowns and is considering studying elsewhere.
This week, Washington spoke to the US Embassy to suspend the visa approval process for foreign students awaiting additional screenings for social media activities.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since pledged to “actively cancel” Chinese student visas, particularly those studying in “critical areas” or linked to the Communist Party.
Rubio’s comments are part of measures from foreign academia and students, particularly China, with analysts saying it has eroding America’s reputation as a safe destination for overseas research and leading many to consider backup plans in other countries.
“If the government has set such a precedent, it will inevitably come when xenophobia sentiment is not checked, and there will be a time when a massive anti-Chinese incident occurs,” Justin, who demanded that he be used alone.
He added that he is considering applying to the University of Oxford and Cambridge in the UK as “Plan B.” “The United States is no longer an ideal place for scientific research,” he said.
The number of Chinese students at US universities has been declining sharply due to initiatives that include the now-repeated “China Initiative,” which targeted allegations of academic espionage during the first Trump administration since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Last year, student intake in China in the United States exceeded 277,000, down 4% from the previous year and 26% from nearly 373,000 in 2019-20. The total number of international students in the United States reached an all-time high of 1.1 million last year.
Julian Fisher, co-founder of Venture Education, a Beijing-based market information consultant, said the industry faces structural challenges.
Not only are parents in mainland China more discerning and selecting only top-ranked institutions, but there is growing competition from Hong Kong and Singapore institutions. China’s demographic decline means that the pool of customers is set to fall, he said.
“The bigger existential question here is whether they have already passed the pinnacle of Chinese students studying abroad,” Fisher said, adding that Trump administration policies can speed up the trend.
An analysis by Venture Education using data from the Baidu Index shows that since the latest measures were announced, interest in “studying in the US” on Chinese search engine Baidu has dropped to 65% a year ago.
Australia appears to be the most popular in Singapore and the UK, the analysis suggests.
Frida Cai, head of business development at Ivyray Edu, an education consultant, said some clients are considering alternatives such as the UK, Hong Kong and Australia. Ivyray Edu advises people applying for US visas to be careful about what they post online.
President Donald Trump’s policies have led to Hong Kong’s “lack of confidence among parents,” said Will Kwon, managing director of consulting firm AAS Education.
“Unless students have had family ties to the US, the overall market appetite has dropped significantly,” he said. Kwong was helping students come up with a “Planning BS” that includes the UK and Australia.
Interest amongst US Hong Kong students has, in any case, plummeted to about a quarter of pre-pandemic levels in recent months, he said.
Beijing explains US policy as evidence of “hypocrisy” underlying Washington’s “long-run claims of freedom and openness.”
“It only further undermines the US’s international image and domestic credibility,” the Foreign Office said of Rubio’s threat.
These comments highlight the practice of the Habit President to promote China’s authoritarian system as a viable development model in other countries as Beijing aims to attract more foreign students from developing countries.
On social media in China, students have expressed anger and confusion.
A student set up by one student to begin mastering design at Harvard this year explained how her research visa was first approved by the US Embassy in Beijing last week. The next day she received an email saying that Harvard University had lost certification for its Student and Exchange Visitors Program. It was later issued when the judge blocked the ban.
“Are you worried?” a student who doesn’t want to be identified told the Financial Times. “Of course. There’s a new policy every other day. That’s very unpredictable,” she said for those looking to study abroad next year: “I suggest they have a backup plan.”
Still, at the US embassy in Beijing this week, some students who had been scheduled for visa interviews before the latest suspension were cautiously optimistic about going to the US.
A Chinese student who identified himself only with Austin said he was back at New York University to complete the Masters Program in Computer Engineering. “The resources and teachers are excellent at NYU,” Austin said.
But he said he was always carrying his passport with him while in the US, in case an immigration officer stopped him on the street. Deportation or revoking a visa was always a risk, he said.
“I think a lot of these things will definitely happen under Trump,” he said.
