Monthly GDP is added to the main indicators, followed by NBER BCDC:
Figure 1: It hinted at non-farm pay par employment in benchmark revisions from CES (Bold Blue), December (light blue) from the reserve benchmark, reported private employment (orange), industrial production (red), current remittances of CH.2017 $ (BOLD Light Green), and personal income excluding current sales of manufacturing and trade sales of CH.2017 $. (Pink), GDP (blue bar), all normalized logs to 2021M11 = 0. 2025Q1 GDP has been released in advance. Source: BLS via Fred, Federal Ferrment, Bea Insights into the S&P Global Market (NEE MacroeConomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5/1/2025 release), and author calculations.
Hard data up to March still does not show any recession (and April for employment). However, be aware of the unique aspects of the pre-customer period, including a surge in transport/warehouse employment.
