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Economic Insight > Blog > Business News > AI-Powered Lending Lifts Pagaya Technologies Stock (PGY) to Multiyear Highs
AI-Powered Lending Lifts Pagaya Technologies Stock (PGY) to Multiyear Highs
Business News

AI-Powered Lending Lifts Pagaya Technologies Stock (PGY) to Multiyear Highs

EC Team
Last updated: June 15, 2025 5:55 am
EC Team
Published June 15, 2025
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming industry and unlocking all-new business models. Few companies in the lending sector show this change as strong as Pagaya Technologies (PGY). To drive the platform with AI, Pagaya has brought explosive growth – ITS stocks have almost doubled each year – reaching profitability ahead of many analysts’ expectations.

Compared to its industry peers, I am bullish on stocks due to its strong potential and attractive valuation. This appears to be a rare opportunity to invest in profitable, AI-driven fintech at an attractive price.

Think of Pagaya as a savvy intermediary in the world of lending. The company does not directly lend to consumers. Instead, it leverages sophisticated data modeling and artificial intelligence to enhance financial institutions’ ability to make informed lending decisions faster and more accurate than traditional methods.

This approach produced a strong network effect. Pagaya currently works with over 31 lending partners, each contributing data that will make AI smarter. The more partners they add, the better their algorithms will be, and it will be harder for their competitors to keep up.

What makes this business model particularly attractive is its fee-based revenue structure. Pagaya makes money from trading fees and does not take on credit risks themselves. They were also wise about diversification, expanding beyond personal loans to auto financing and point of sale loans, reducing their reliance on a single market segment.

Additionally, we use our network to securitize over 132 institutional investors and loan assets. The company secured $6 billion in 2024 through 17 asset-supported securitizations and became the leading issuer of US personal loan ABS. In the first quarter of 2025, it issued $1.4 billion via three transactions, including AAA-rated Personal Loan ABS and AA-rated Auto ABS.

Pagaya’s first quarter 2025 results marked a first positive net profit. Total revenue reached $290 million, representing solid growth of 18% year-on-year. More importantly, toll revenues have increased by 19%, suggesting that the core business is firing on all cylinders.

This allowed the company to make $8 million in net profit. This is a dramatic shift from a loss of $21.2 million in the same period last year. Management expects this trend to continue, projecting annual profits between $10 million and $45 million onto forecast revenues between $1.15 billion and $1.3 billion.

Pagaya has successfully moved from a cash-burning startup to a profitable market leader. Meanwhile, AI-powered business models create real competitive advantages in large, growing markets. However, Pagaya’s valuation suggests that the market is not entirely aware of the company’s potential. As it trades on just 7.6 times the advance revenue, the stocks are significantly cheaper than the sector average of about 22.9 times.

PGY is rated as a strong purchase of Tiprank based on the overall recommendations of six analysts, with a 12-month price target of $19.65, representing an upside of 8% from the current level. More specifically, five analysts are bullish, one is neutral, and one is not bearish.

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</div><figcaption class=See more PGY Analyst ratings

Wall Street analysts seem to agree that the stock is a solid prospect. For example, Mark Palmer from Benchmark Co. repeated the purchase rating at a price target of $25, based on Pagaya’s recent operational progress, an attractive rating compared to his peers, and a recent achievement of GAAP net profitability.

Additionally, Citizen JMP analyst David Scharf reaffirmed the ratings above the market ratings, setting a price target of $20 and pointed to a strategic partnership with Klarna to enhance participation in loans for longer periods through first ABS facilities for POS (POS) revenue. This development is a step towards establishing Pagaya as a key partner in Point-of-Sale (POS) lending space, in line with management’s goals to scale a cohesive POS platform and secure asset-backed securities (ABS) financing channels.

FinTech’s lending sector is facing increasing scrutiny of regulations, particularly regarding the use of AI and consumer protection. Changes in regulations could affect Pagaya’s business model or lead to increased compliance costs.

Macroeconomic conditions and weakening of consumer sentiment also pose risks. In 2023, the company had to receive an impairment fee of $229 million related to a poorly performed loan vintage. Management has since strengthened its underwriting standards, but lending remains a circular business that is highly sensitive to economic trends.

Pagaya’s balance sheet also ensures close monitoring. The company is highly utilized, with a debt-to-fair ratio of over 200%. Although it holds around $200 million in cash, investors need to monitor their ability to manage their debt amid continuing growth and expansion.

Finally, the 2.37 beta version of the stock suggests high volatility. This means that you are more likely to experience sharper price movements than the wider market. This level of fluctuation may not be suitable for risk averse investors.

Pagaya is exposed to two powerful investment themes: rapid advances in artificial intelligence and continuous transformation of lending and financial services. A shift to profitability combined with a reasonable valuation and a number of growth catalysts makes the investment case convincing. There is a higher level of risk to inventory, but it also offers a significant rise. I remain bullish about that long-term outlook.

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